What will Donald Trump say during Remarks to NCAA Collegiate National Champions
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 46% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
46%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$6K
18 contracts
Top contract
63¢
$2K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 21% of their title tokens — “What will McDonald's Corporation say during their next earnings call” vs “What will Bernie Sanders say during Fighting Oligarchy: Where We Go From Here with Bernie Sanders in Detroit”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What will McDonald's Corporation say during their next earnings call
What will McDonald's Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Revenue
KXEARNINGSMENTIONMCD-26MAY07-REVE
What will McDonald's Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Dividend
KXEARNINGSMENTIONMCD-26MAY07-DIVI
What will McDonald's Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Delivery
KXEARNINGSMENTIONMCD-26MAY07-DELI
What will McDonald's Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Tariff
KXEARNINGSMENTIONMCD-26MAY07-TARI
What will McDonald's Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Hot Honey
KXEARNINGSMENTIONMCD-26MAY07-HOT
What will McDonald's Corporation say during their next earnings call?: DoorDash
KXEARNINGSMENTIONMCD-26MAY07-DOOR
What will McDonald's Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Competition
KXEARNINGSMENTIONMCD-26MAY07-COMP
What will McDonald's Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Monopoly
KXEARNINGSMENTIONMCD-26MAY07-MONO
What will McDonald's Corporation say during their next earnings call?: McChicken
KXEARNINGSMENTIONMCD-26MAY07-MCCH
What will McDonald's Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Buffalo
KXEARNINGSMENTIONMCD-26MAY07-BUFF
What will McDonald's Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Big Arch
KXEARNINGSMENTIONMCD-26MAY07-BIG
What will McDonald's Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Happy Meal
KXEARNINGSMENTIONMCD-26MAY07-HAPP
What will McDonald's Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Supply Chain
KXEARNINGSMENTIONMCD-26MAY07-SUPP
What will McDonald's Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Loyalty
KXEARNINGSMENTIONMCD-26MAY07-LOYA
Cluster 2
What will Bernie Sanders say during Fighting Oligarchy: Where We Go From Here with Bernie Sanders in Detroit
Cluster 3
What will Zohran Mamdani say during next NYC Mayor's Office announcement
Cluster 4
What will Drake say during Iceman
What will Drake say during Iceman?: Trump
KXDRAKEMENTION-26MAY15-TRUM
Cluster 5
What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call
What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: Trump
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-TRUM
What moved the line
- Apr 30Revenue↑28pp41→69¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Where We Go From Here with Bernie Sanders in Detroit?: Trump (3+ times)↑19pp66→85¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29Hot Honey↑18pp46→64¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Hot Honey↓16pp65→49¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29DoorDash↑14pp6→20¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in trump
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.