When will "The Last of Us" Season 3 be released
Leader sits at 71% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 20%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 2028
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
20¢
Before Jul 2027
Spread
51pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$481
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
608 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
When will "The Last of Us" Season 3 be released
When will "The Last of Us" Season 3 be released?: Before Jul 2027
KXTVSEASONRELEASETHELASTOFUS-27-JUL
When will "The Last of Us" Season 3 be released?: Before Jan 2028
KXTVSEASONRELEASETHELASTOFUS-28-JAN
When will "The Last of Us" Season 3 be released?: Before Oct 2026
KXTVSEASONRELEASETHELASTOFUS-26-OCT
When will "The Last of Us" Season 3 be released?: Before Apr 2027
KXTVSEASONRELEASETHELASTOFUS-27-APR
When will "The Last of Us" Season 3 be released?: Before Jan 2027
KXTVSEASONRELEASETHELASTOFUS-27-JAN
Analysis
This reflects a 70% probability that The Last of Us Season 3 will be released by January 28, 2027. The current probability is driven primarily by HBO's production timeline and the show's successful completion of previous seasons, though exact renewal and greenlight decisions from the network significantly influence the forecast. The main uncertainty catalyst is any official HBO announcement regarding Season 3 production status, greenlight approval, or premiere date confirmation—which typically occurs during industry announcements or earnings calls. Contract pricing suggests meaningful doubt remains, with a 30% probability assigned to delays or non-release by the deadline, reflecting typical production risks including post-production schedules, talent availability, and network strategic decisions around release pacing.
- ›HBO's stated production pipeline and whether Season 3 has received formal greenlight status as of May 2026
- ›Historical production-to-premiere timelines for The Last of Us (Season 1-2 release intervals and post-production duration)
- ›Any publicly announced premiere date or production delays reported by HBO, which would directly impact January 28, 2027 feasibility
- ›Competing HBO release priorities and network slate decisions that could shift Season 3's scheduled release window
- ›Industry labor agreements and post-production capacity constraints that could extend the typical production-to-air timeline beyond the contract deadline
What moved the line
- May 2Before Jul 2027↓4pp20→16¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 26Before Jan 2027↓4pp11→7¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Before Apr 2027↓4pp17→13¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Before Jul 2027↑3pp16→19¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Before Jan 2027↑3pp7→10¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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