Ulsan HD FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 29%, Polymarket at 32% — a 3pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
29%
1 contract
Polymarket
32%
19 contracts
Cross-venue gap
3pp
modest gap
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$183
20 contracts
Top contract
36¢
$86 · Polymarket
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 29¢ · Polymarket 32¢ · 3pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (29¢, 1 contract) and sell on Polymarket (32¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
4 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC” vs “Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC
Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC - More Markets: Pohang Steelers FC (-2.5)
0xbebd40…6491
Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x4a0472…2ce2
Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x22a7b8…f1ac
Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC - More Markets: Gangwon FC (-2.5)
0x36d69b…31ff
Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC: Gangwon FC
0x09ab68…0c78
Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC: Pohang Steelers FC
0xa80cd7…c5ea
Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xdb7be8…c886
Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x9e7de8…ac10
Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC - More Markets: Pohang Steelers FC (-1.5)
0xe483f0…01b4
Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x39eae1…cc7b
Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC - More Markets: Gangwon FC (-1.5)
0x977347…4855
Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC: Draw (Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC)
0x723f65…6749
Cluster 2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC: Ulsan HD FC
0x7f5e73…c050
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xc2ca50…51b6
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x958037…d5e6
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC: Draw (Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC)
0xce0561…acdf
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x6bf7a4…f057
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xf3ccec…9b09
Cluster 3
K-League: Winner: Pohang Steelers
K-League: Winner: Pohang Steelers
0x5640ae…51f5
Cluster 4
Gangwon vs Pohang Steelers Winner
Gangwon vs Pohang Steelers Winner?: Tie
KXKLEAGUEGAME-26MAY05GAWPOH-TIE
What moved the line
- May 2Pohang Steelers FC (-2.5)↓24pp37→13¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Pohang Steelers FC (-1.5)↓23pp35→12¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Gangwon FC (-2.5)↓15pp33→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Gangwon FC (-2.5)↓10pp18→8¢ · Polymarket
- May 3O/U 4.5↓10pp19→9¢ · Polymarket
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 23 min ago.