SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 3 outcomes3 contractsPolymarketrefreshed just nowCloses May 7, 2026 · 3d1pp · 11h

Utah Royals FC vs. Houston Dash

Leader sits at 43% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 31%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

43%

Utah Royals FC

runner-up 31¢leader 43¢

Outcomes

3

winner-take-all

Runner-up

31¢

Draw (Utah Royals FC vs. Hou

Spread

12pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 7, 2026

3 days

Venue

Polymarket

3 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayUtah Royals FC: 44% (2 days, 2 points)Utah Royals FC: 44% on 2026-05-03Draw (Utah Royals FC vs. Houston Dash): 33% (2 days, 2 points)Draw (Utah Royals FC vs. Houston Dash): 33% on 2026-05-03Houston Dash: 34% (2 days, 2 points)Houston Dash: 34% on 2026-05-03
Utah Royals FC44¢Draw (Utah Royals FC vs. Houston Dash)33¢Houston Dash34¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

Utah Royals FC is priced at 44% to win an upcoming match against Houston Dash, reflecting a moderate advantage over Houston's 33% win probability, with a 23% draw probability completing the match outcome. The market reflects several competing dynamics: Utah's recent form and home-field considerations push the probability upward, while Houston's roster strength and regular-season competitiveness provide counterweight. The match result itself—scheduled for the stated date—will definitively resolve the contract, making pre-match team condition reports, injury updates, and lineup announcements the immediate catalysts that could shift the probability in either direction. Current trading volume is inactive, indicating limited recent conviction in either direction among market participants.

  • Utah Royals FC priced with 11-percentage-point lead over Houston Dash, indicating forecaster lean toward home team or relative form advantage
  • Draw probability at 23% suggests historical head-to-head scoring patterns and team defensive profiles create material likelihood of tied result
  • Zero 24-hour trading volume across all contracts indicates minimal recent information flow or market participant activity reassessing the matchup
  • Houston Dash handicap contract (-1.5 spread) priced at 33¢ suggests moderate skepticism about Houston covering a goal deficit
  • Spread between Utah win (43¢) and Houston win (33¢) reflects 10-percentage-point differential roughly consistent with typical single-match home advantage in professional soccer

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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