Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 39% across 19 contracts. Kalshi at 52%, Polymarket at 35% — a 17pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
52%
4 contracts
Polymarket
35%
15 contracts
Cross-venue gap
17pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7K
19 contracts
Top contract
13¢
$2K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 52¢ · Polymarket 35¢ · 17pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (35¢, 15 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (52¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
13 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Will Los Angeles Thieves win” vs “FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Los Angeles Thieves win
Will Los Angeles Thieves win the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge match?: Los Angeles Thieves
KXCODGAME-26MAY031500LATVAN-LAT
Will Los Angeles Thieves win map 2 in the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge match?: Los Angeles Thieves
KXCODMAP-26MAY031500LATVAN-2-LAT
Cluster 2
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt
Cluster 3
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets
Cluster 4
Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Jeju SK FC - More Markets: O/U
Cluster 5
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U
Cluster 6
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets
Cluster 7
Will Vancouver Surge win the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge match
Cluster 8
Will over 3.5 maps be played in the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge Call of Duty match
Cluster 9
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets: Club Libertad
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets: Club Libertad (-2.5)
0x361624…8104
Cluster 10
MLS Cup Winner 2026: Vancouver Whitecaps FC
MLS Cup Winner 2026: Vancouver Whitecaps FC
0x25bf49…5442
Cluster 11
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x92fa6c…9a3a
Cluster 12
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x8c7c03…b8bb
Cluster 13
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)
0x2ae2eb…68c8
What moved the line
- May 1Over 3.5 maps↑43pp10→53¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Over 3.5 maps↓23pp56→33¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Incheon United FC (-2.5)↓17pp35→18¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Vancouver Whitecaps FC↑12pp11→23¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30Vancouver Whitecaps FC↓12pp23→11¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.