Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC
Leader sits at 47% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 35%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Vegalta Sendai
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
35¢
Tochigi SC
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC
Analysis
This 47% probability reflects market participants' assessment that Vegalta Sendai will win an upcoming match against Tochigi SC, slightly favoring Sendai over a draw (37% implied) and Tochigi's victory. The probability is driven primarily by relative team form, recent head-to-head results, and home-field advantage considerations in Japan's football league system. The match outcome will be determined on the scheduled fixture date, which serves as the resolution point for all uncertainty. Market pricing is relatively thin based on zero 24-hour volume across related contracts, suggesting limited trader participation and potentially wider bid-ask spreads than more liquid events.
- ›Vegalta Sendai's current league position and recent match results compared to Tochigi SC's performance trajectory
- ›Home or away designation and historical performance patterns at the specific venue
- ›Direct head-to-head record between these two teams over the past 2-3 seasons
- ›Team roster availability, including injuries or suspensions to key players for either side
- ›Recent implied volatility and contract pricing movement suggesting trader confidence levels in the outcome
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 13 min ago.