Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata
Leader sits at 51% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 34%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Ventforet Kōfu
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
34¢
Draw (Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júb
Spread
17pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata
Analysis
This 50% probability reflects that market participants view Ventforet Kōfu and Júbilo Iwata as evenly matched in their upcoming match. The market is pricing near parity despite sparse trading volume across related contracts, suggesting limited consensus on team form, recent performance, or head-to-head dynamics. Key drivers of the probability include each team's current league standing, recent win-loss records, injury status, and home/away advantage. The match itself will resolve this uncertainty when played; actual match odds from Japanese football bookmakers may show significant divergence from this 50% level. Secondary markets on goals and handicaps (Júbilo favored at -1.5, priced at 33¢) suggest traders lean slightly toward Júbilo Iwata, yet the winner-take-all contract remains balanced. Resolution depends entirely on the final score of the scheduled fixture.
- ›Júbilo Iwata is priced lower on handicap markets (-1.5 at 33¢), indicating expectation of a competitive or slight Júbilo victory rather than a Ventforet draw
- ›Both Teams to Score contract at 50¢ suggests moderate likelihood of an open match rather than a defensive result
- ›Trading volume across all related contracts is at $0 in 24 hours, indicating minimal market depth and potential for sharp movement on new information
- ›J-League standings, recent form, and goal differential for each team as of early May 2026 will anchor reasonable probability ranges
- ›Match scheduling, team roster availability, and weather conditions nearer to kickoff could shift perception from the current 50% baseline
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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