V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama
Leader sits at 39% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 32%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
V-Varen Nagasaki
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
32¢
Fagiano Okayama
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama
Analysis
This represents the probability that Fagiano Okayama will win an upcoming match against V-Varen Nagasaki in Japan's J. League, currently priced at 35%. The narrow gap between Fagiano Okayama (35%) and V-Varen Nagasaki (33%) reflects a competitive matchup with limited market differentiation. Contract depth shows significant uncertainty around match scoring patterns—the O/U 1.5 contract at 62 cents suggests markets expect a low-scoring encounter. Liquidity is minimal across all contracts ($0 trading volume in 24 hours), indicating sparse market participation and potential for price instability. The resolution depends entirely on the scheduled match outcome. Key factors moving this probability include each team's recent form, head-to-head historical records, player injury status, and home-field advantage if applicable.
- ›Market liquidity is essentially absent (zero 24-hour volume across all contracts), limiting confidence in price discovery
- ›Over/Under 1.5 contract at 62 cents suggests expectation of low-scoring outcome, constraining win probability through goal distribution
- ›Probability spread between top two outcomes (35% vs 33%) is within typical noise range, indicating genuine uncertainty rather than a clear favorite
- ›V-Varen Nagasaki listed at 45 cents in broader J. League winner market suggests longer-term odds differ from this match-specific pricing
- ›Zero trading activity means prices reflect initial contract setup rather than responsive market-making to new information
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.