SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 3 outcomes3 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 12 min agoCloses May 4, 2026 · 0d1pp · 15h

Wadi Degla SC vs. Kahrabaa Ismailia FC

Leader sits at 55% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 27%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

55%

Wadi Degla SC

runner-up 27¢leader 55¢

Outcomes

3

winner-take-all

Runner-up

27¢

Draw (Wadi Degla SC vs. Kahr

Spread

28pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 4, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

3 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayWadi Degla SC: 56% (5 days, 5 points)Wadi Degla SC: 56% on 2026-05-03Draw (Wadi Degla SC vs. Kahrabaa Ismailia FC): 27% (5 days, 5 points)Draw (Wadi Degla SC vs. Kahrabaa Ismailia FC): 27% on 2026-05-03Kahrabaa Ismailia FC: 17% (5 days, 5 points)Kahrabaa Ismailia FC: 17% on 2026-05-03
Wadi Degla SC56¢Draw (Wadi Degla SC vs. Kahrabaa Ismailia FC)27¢Kahrabaa Ismailia FC17¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 5d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market reflects a 56% probability that Wadi Degla SC wins or draws against Kahrabaa Ismailia FC, with a 27% probability assigned to an outright Kahrabaa victory. The odds favor Wadi Degla, but the runner-up probability suggests material uncertainty about the outcome. Current prices across related markets—including spread and total-goals contracts—show low trading volume ($0 in 24-hour activity across all listed contracts), indicating limited market participation and potentially wide bid-ask spreads. The minimal liquidity may mean the 56% headline probability reflects the views of few traders rather than a consensus. Resolution will occur when the match is played and the final result is confirmed. Key drivers of movement would be injury reports, recent form data, or shifts in betting sentiment closer to kickoff.

  • Trading volume across all related contracts is zero in the last 24 hours, suggesting sparse liquidity and potentially unreliable price discovery
  • The 56% leader probability exceeds the 33% Polymarket average, indicating concentration among fewer traders rather than broad agreement
  • Kahrabaa spread contracts (−2.5 and −1.5) are priced at 10¢ and 11¢ respectively, implying low market confidence in Kahrabaa covering such margins
  • The Over/Under 3.5 contract at 25¢ suggests markets expect a low-scoring match on average
  • Runner-up outcome at 27% indicates material probability mass on Kahrabaa outright victory, not just draw scenarios

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 12 min ago.