SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 12 min agoCloses May 4, 2026 · 0d24pp · 13h

Wadi Degla SC vs. Kahrabaa Ismailia FC - More Markets

Leader sits at 71% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 46%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

71%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 46¢leader 71¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

46¢

Both Teams to Score

Spread

25pp

contested

24h volume

$60

thin orderbook

Closes

May 4, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 69% (3 days, 3 points)O/U 1.5: 69% on 2026-05-03Both Teams to Score: 47% (3 days, 3 points)Both Teams to Score: 47% on 2026-05-03O/U 2.5: 44% (3 days, 2 points)O/U 2.5: 44% on 2026-05-02
O/U 1.569¢Both Teams to Score47¢O/U 2.544¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

The current 47% probability reflects market expectation that Wadi Degla SC will win an upcoming match against Kahrabaa Ismailia FC, based on aggregated pricing from Polymarket contracts. This probability sits notably below even odds, suggesting the market currently favors the opposing outcome at 30%, with remaining probability distributed across draws or other outcomes. The level likely reflects recent form, head-to-head records, and home/away status between the two Egyptian clubs. The match date and venue conditions—along with any late team news regarding injuries or roster changes—represent the primary catalyst that would shift this probability before the fixture kicks off. Current trading volume and contract liquidity remain modest, meaning material new information could produce sharper repricing.

  • Match date and kickoff time relative to current date determine time window for probability adjustment
  • Recent performance records and win rates of both clubs in their respective leagues this season
  • Head-to-head historical results between Wadi Degla SC and Kahrabaa Ismailia FC
  • Confirmed team lineups, injury status, and roster availability announced before match day
  • Home/away designation and stadium conditions if applicable to either team's historical performance

What moved the line

  • May 2O/U 4.58pp1911¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Kahrabaa Ismailia FC (-1.5)3pp1512¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 12 min ago.