Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 47% across 3 contracts. Kalshi at 46%, Polymarket at 48%.
Implied probability
Kalshi
46%
2 contracts
Polymarket
48%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
2pp
tight
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$118
3 contracts
Top contract
72¢
$100 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 46¢ · Polymarket 48¢ · 2pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (46¢, 2 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (48¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
2 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne Kangaroos winner” vs “A League Soccer: Winner: Melbourne Victory”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne Kangaroos winner
Cluster 2
A League Soccer: Winner: Melbourne Victory
A League Soccer: Winner: Melbourne Victory
0x040fbc…1163
What moved the line
- May 3Sydney Swans↑21pp7→28¢ · Kalshi
- May 3North Melbourne Kangaroos↑11pp4→15¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.