What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in April 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 48% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 60%, Polymarket at 29% — a 31pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
60%
12 contracts
Polymarket
29%
8 contracts
Cross-venue gap
31pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$70K
20 contracts
Top contract
28¢
$29K · Polymarket
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 60¢ · Polymarket 29¢ · 31pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (29¢, 8 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (60¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 9% of their title tokens — “What will Airbnb, Inc. say during their next earnings call” vs “What price”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What will Airbnb, Inc. say during their next earnings call
What will Airbnb, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Acquisition
KXEARNINGSMENTIONABNB-26MAY07-ACQU
What will Airbnb, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Social Media
KXEARNINGSMENTIONABNB-26MAY07-SOCI
What will Airbnb, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Home Sharing
KXEARNINGSMENTIONABNB-26MAY07-HOME
What will Airbnb, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Headwind
KXEARNINGSMENTIONABNB-26MAY07-HEAD
What will Airbnb, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: World Cup
KXEARNINGSMENTIONABNB-26MAY07-WORL
What will Airbnb, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Domestic
KXEARNINGSMENTIONABNB-26MAY07-DOME
What will Airbnb, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Service Agent
KXEARNINGSMENTIONABNB-26MAY07-SERV
What will Airbnb, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: International
KXEARNINGSMENTIONABNB-26MAY07-INTE
What will Airbnb, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: China
KXEARNINGSMENTIONABNB-26MAY07-CHIN
What will Airbnb, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Boutique
KXEARNINGSMENTIONABNB-26MAY07-BOUT
What will Airbnb, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Tailwind
KXEARNINGSMENTIONABNB-26MAY07-TAIL
What will Airbnb, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Take Rate
KXEARNINGSMENTIONABNB-26MAY07-TAKE
Cluster 2
What price
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000
0x024b68…6fee
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000
0x1e5564…baa2
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000
0xce3c54…2c56
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 110,000
0x63eaf4…7b01
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000
0x752fa6…8a8c
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 35,000
0x2745c3…a2a2
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500
0xcf25cc…9780
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 200,000
0xac32e7…68cd
What moved the line
- May 1Take Rate↑30pp46→76¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Take Rate↓26pp72→46¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Take Rate↓16pp76→60¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Home Sharing↓13pp61→48¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29↓ 45,000↓9pp39→30¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 14 min ago.