What price will Dogecoin hit in 2026?
Leader sits at 53% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 36%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↑ 0.16
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
36¢
↓ 0.06
Spread
17pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
242 days
Venue
Polymarket
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What price will Dogecoin hit in 2026
What price will Dogecoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 0.52
0x668b1a…5d28
What price will Dogecoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 0.02
0xac3d88…acfc
What price will Dogecoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 0.16
0xc2eb25…dbd0
What price will Dogecoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 0.24
0x1eef86…d215
What price will Dogecoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 0.32
0x1ae135…94e6
What price will Dogecoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 0.40
0x02e635…ff31
What price will Dogecoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 0.48
0x98ed45…f808
What price will Dogecoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 0.06
0x39cdaf…7aff
What price will Dogecoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 0.20
0x7f1210…3fdf
What price will Dogecoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 0.28
0x6334f1…8d28
What price will Dogecoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 0.36
0xfd82f5…bc08
What price will Dogecoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 0.44
0x257eb5…24c1
Analysis
This market estimates a 48% probability that Dogecoin will trade below $0.02 at some point in 2026. The current pricing reflects uncertainty about whether the cryptocurrency will depreciate further or maintain higher valuations. Dogecoin's price action depends heavily on broader crypto market sentiment, which remains volatile despite Bitcoin trading patterns suggesting cautious positioning. Bitcoin options show participants hedging against both downside (45,000 contract leading at 27¢) and further gains, indicating mixed conviction. For Dogecoin specifically, movement will likely track Bitcoin's trajectory, as the asset historically correlates with major cryptocurrencies. The contract resolves at year-end 2026, meaning seven months remain for price discovery. Key drivers include macroeconomic conditions affecting risk assets, regulatory announcements, and sentiment shifts within crypto markets. Current Dogecoin price versus the $0.02 threshold and trading volume patterns on major exchanges will provide early signals about which outcome becomes more probable.
- ›Current Dogecoin spot price relative to $0.02 threshold and recent price trend direction over past 30-90 days
- ›Bitcoin volatility and directional bias, as evidenced by the 27¢ pricing on the $45,000 downside contract suggesting hedging demand
- ›Trading volume on Dogecoin and correlated assets, with low volume typically indicating weaker price support
- ›Regulatory developments or policy announcements that could impact cryptocurrency valuations broadly
- ›Time remaining until December 31, 2026 resolution and how price movements in Q3-Q4 2026 compare to current levels
What moved the line
- Apr 28↑ 0.44↑35pp10→45¢ · Polymarket
- May 2↑ 0.44↓33pp45→12¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28↑ 0.40↑33pp11→44¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28↑ 0.48↑28pp8→36¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28↑ 0.36↑27pp10→37¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 13 min ago.