SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 12 outcomes12 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 13 min agoCloses Jan 1, 2027 · 242d5pp · 16h

What price will Dogecoin hit in 2026?

Bracket↓ 0.02

Leader sits at 53% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 36%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

53%

↑ 0.16

runner-up 36¢leader 53¢

Outcomes

12

winner-take-all

Runner-up

36¢

↓ 0.06

Spread

17pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

242 days

Venue

Polymarket

12 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtoday↑ 0.16: 48% (26 days, 23 points)↑ 0.16: 48% on 2026-05-03↓ 0.06: 45% (26 days, 26 points)↓ 0.06: 45% on 2026-05-03↑ 0.20: 33% (26 days, 26 points)↑ 0.20: 33% on 2026-05-03
↑ 0.1648¢↓ 0.0645¢↑ 0.2033¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 26d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market estimates a 48% probability that Dogecoin will trade below $0.02 at some point in 2026. The current pricing reflects uncertainty about whether the cryptocurrency will depreciate further or maintain higher valuations. Dogecoin's price action depends heavily on broader crypto market sentiment, which remains volatile despite Bitcoin trading patterns suggesting cautious positioning. Bitcoin options show participants hedging against both downside (45,000 contract leading at 27¢) and further gains, indicating mixed conviction. For Dogecoin specifically, movement will likely track Bitcoin's trajectory, as the asset historically correlates with major cryptocurrencies. The contract resolves at year-end 2026, meaning seven months remain for price discovery. Key drivers include macroeconomic conditions affecting risk assets, regulatory announcements, and sentiment shifts within crypto markets. Current Dogecoin price versus the $0.02 threshold and trading volume patterns on major exchanges will provide early signals about which outcome becomes more probable.

  • Current Dogecoin spot price relative to $0.02 threshold and recent price trend direction over past 30-90 days
  • Bitcoin volatility and directional bias, as evidenced by the 27¢ pricing on the $45,000 downside contract suggesting hedging demand
  • Trading volume on Dogecoin and correlated assets, with low volume typically indicating weaker price support
  • Regulatory developments or policy announcements that could impact cryptocurrency valuations broadly
  • Time remaining until December 31, 2026 resolution and how price movements in Q3-Q4 2026 compare to current levels

What moved the line

  • Apr 28↑ 0.4435pp1045¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2↑ 0.4433pp4512¢ · Polymarket
  • Apr 28↑ 0.4033pp1144¢ · Polymarket
  • Apr 28↑ 0.4828pp836¢ · Polymarket
  • Apr 28↑ 0.3627pp1037¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 13 min ago.