What price will XRP hit in April?
Leader sits at 65% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 54%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↓ 1.00
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
54¢
↓ 0.80
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$47K
liquid
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Polymarket
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What price
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000
0x024b68…6fee
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000
0x1e5564…baa2
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 35,000
0x2745c3…a2a2
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500
0xcf25cc…9780
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 200,000
0xac32e7…68cd
What price will XRP hit in 2026?: ↓ 0.60
0xb5b45b…4a3d
What price will XRP hit in 2026?: ↑ 3.00
0x648f60…3bd5
What price will XRP hit in 2026?: ↓ 0.40
0x97d188…5616
What price will XRP hit in 2026?: ↓ 0.20
0xd1186a…7944
What price will XRP hit in 2026?: ↓ 1.00
0xafce70…31d5
What price will XRP hit in 2026?: ↑ 4.20
0xca7f2d…ec95
What price will XRP hit in 2026?: ↑ 2.80
0xe07992…8a0b
What price will XRP hit in 2026?: ↑ 2.60
0x268199…b494
What price will XRP hit in 2026?: ↑ 4.00
0xe8d4c1…ea8d
What price will XRP hit in 2026?: ↑ 3.60
0x11e654…1774
What price will XRP hit in 2026?: ↑ 3.80
0x4b9258…f0d1
What price will XRP hit in 2026?: ↑ 5.00
0x11f8f8…eea1
What price will XRP hit in 2026?: ↓ 0.80
0xe1fe83…93d5
What price will XRP hit in 2026?: ↑ 3.20
0xfae55a…cb29
What price will XRP hit in 2026?: ↑ 3.40
0x226873…66b8
What moved the line
- Apr 28↓ 0.60↑25pp29→54¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28↓ 0.80↑17pp49→66¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28↑ 3.40↑14pp11→25¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28↓ 1.00↑11pp55→66¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28↑ 3.20↑11pp11→22¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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