SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 20 outcomes20 contractsPolymarketrefreshed just now

What price will XRP hit in April?

Bracket↓ 1.00

Leader sits at 65% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 54%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

65%

↓ 1.00

runner-up 54¢leader 65¢

Outcomes

20

winner-take-all

Runner-up

54¢

↓ 0.80

Spread

11pp

contested

24h volume

$47K

liquid

Closes

not derived

Venue

Polymarket

20 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtoday↓ 1.00: 65% (26 days, 24 points)↓ 1.00: 65% on 2026-05-03↓ 0.80: 56% (26 days, 24 points)↓ 0.80: 56% on 2026-05-03↓ 1,500: 48% (26 days, 26 points)↓ 1,500: 48% on 2026-05-03
↓ 1.0065¢↓ 0.8056¢↓ 1,50048¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 26d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

What price

20 contracts$47K

What moved the line

  • Apr 28↓ 0.6025pp2954¢ · Polymarket
  • Apr 28↓ 0.8017pp4966¢ · Polymarket
  • Apr 28↑ 3.4014pp1125¢ · Polymarket
  • Apr 28↓ 1.0011pp5566¢ · Polymarket
  • Apr 28↑ 3.2011pp1122¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.