What will Trump say in April?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
40%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$41K
8 contracts
Top contract
20¢
$20K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Will Trump say "” vs “What will Markwayne Mullin say during Fox News Sunday”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Trump say "
Cluster 2
What will Markwayne Mullin say during Fox News Sunday
What will Markwayne Mullin say during Fox News Sunday?: Trump
KXFOXNEWSMENTION-26MAY03-TRUM
Cluster 3
What will Bernie Sanders say during Fighting Oligarchy: Where We Go From Here with Bernie Sanders in Detroit
Cluster 4
What will Kathy Hochul say during next Governor Kathy Hochul announcement
What will Kathy Hochul say during next Governor Kathy Hochul announcement?: Trump
KXHOCHULMENTION-26APR29B-TRUM
Cluster 5
What will Zohran Mamdani say during next NYC Mayor's Office announcement
Cluster 6
What will Drake say during Iceman
What will Drake say during Iceman?: Trump
KXDRAKEMENTION-26MAY15-TRUM
Cluster 7
What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call
What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: Trump
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-TRUM
What moved the line
- Apr 29Trump↑41pp2→43¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Trump↓24pp31→7¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Where We Go From Here with Bernie Sanders in Detroit?: Trump (3+ times)↑19pp66→85¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Karoline / Leavitt↓18pp52→34¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Who are you with / Where are you from↓15pp37→22¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in trump
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.