Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026
Leader sits at 86% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 15%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Las Vegas Raiders
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
15¢
Atlanta Falcons
Spread
71pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$654
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 1, 2026
120 days
Venue
Polymarket
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026
Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026?: Green Bay Packers
0x7ba306…73de
Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026?: Philadelphia Eagles
0x346864…4ee3
Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026?: Cincinnati Bengals
0x7d092b…d476
Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026?: New England Patriots
0xc1e897…df27
Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026?: Buffalo Bills
0xd4822c…235f
Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026?: Las Vegas Raiders
0x1094ec…5926
Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026?: Seattle Seahawks
0x16b7c9…42f3
Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026?: San Francisco 49ers
0xae9013…9f0b
Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026?: Tennessee Titans
0x7c3818…a301
Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026?: Atlanta Falcons
0x2a2f7c…4a59
Analysis
The market is pricing an 86% probability that Maxx Crosby will remain with the Las Vegas Raiders in 2026, while alternative outcomes like Detroit (5%) or Tennessee (9%) trade at significantly lower prices. This reflects the base case that Crosby stays put, though his contract status and any team restructuring could alter this outcome. The main factors moving this probability would be trade rumors, contract negotiations, or unexpected roster changes by Las Vegas. Resolution depends on official NFL roster announcements or trades, which occur primarily during offseason windows and free agency periods. Near-term catalysts include any public statements from Raiders management about retention plans or sudden trade activity involving defensive players.
- ›Crosby's existing contract with Las Vegas and any active contract discussions or holdouts
- ›Raiders' stated priority regarding defensive retention and organizational stability heading into 2026
- ›Trade activity or salary cap movements involving Crosby or comparable edge rushers around the NFL
- ›Injury status or performance-related factors that could influence team or player decisions
- ›Public reporting or official statements from Raiders organization regarding long-term defensive plans
What moved the line
- Apr 28Cincinnati Bengals↑49pp0→49¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Buffalo Bills↑48pp1→49¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Tennessee Titans↑44pp1→45¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30Green Bay Packers↑42pp2→44¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Atlanta Falcons↑39pp1→40¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 13 min ago.