Will the inclusion of hedgehog on the 2026 Bank of England wildlife shortlist be confirmed
Leader sits at 81% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 79%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Hedgehog
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
79¢
Red Squirrel
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$135
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 1, 2026
181 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the inclusion
Will the inclusion of puffin on the 2026 Bank of England wildlife shortlist be confirmed?: Puffin
KXWILDSHT-26-PUF
Will the inclusion of badger on the 2026 Bank of England wildlife shortlist be confirmed?: Badger
KXWILDSHT-26-BAD
Will the inclusion of fox on the 2026 Bank of England wildlife shortlist be confirmed?: Fox
KXWILDSHT-26-FOX
Will the inclusion of kingfisher on the 2026 Bank of England wildlife shortlist be confirmed?: Kingfisher
KXWILDSHT-26-KNG
Will the inclusion of otter on the 2026 Bank of England wildlife shortlist be confirmed?: Otter
KXWILDSHT-26-OTT
Will the inclusion of robin on the 2026 Bank of England wildlife shortlist be confirmed?: Robin
KXWILDSHT-26-ROB
Will the inclusion of red squirrel on the 2026 Bank of England wildlife shortlist be confirmed?: Red Squirrel
KXWILDSHT-26-RED
Will the inclusion of hedgehog on the 2026 Bank of England wildlife shortlist be confirmed?: Hedgehog
KXWILDSHT-26-HED
Analysis
This market asks whether the Bank of England will officially confirm the hedgehog as part of its 2026 wildlife shortlist—a conservation-themed initiative the central bank is reportedly considering. At 81%, traders believe confirmation is more likely than not, suggesting relatively high conviction based on available evidence. The probability reflects expectations around the Bank's upcoming announcement timeline and any interim statements from officials. Upward pressure comes from conservation priorities and media advocacy; downward pressure would come from competing species candidates or delays in the selection process. The resolution depends entirely on the Bank of England's official public confirmation, which is the key event that will settle this market.
- ›Bank of England's stated conservation focus and any prior public signals about including small mammals on the shortlist
- ›Relative lobbying momentum for hedgehog versus other competing species (e.g., bees, otters, badgers) in shortlist consideration
- ›Timeline and official announcement date set by the Bank for revealing its 2026 wildlife shortlist selection
- ›Historical precedent: whether the Bank has previously included controversial or niche species in past conservation initiatives
- ›Recent hedgehog population and media coverage trends that may influence institutional decision-making
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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