WNBA: 2026 Champion
Leader sits at 32% across 14 bound outcomes, runner-up at 18%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
2026 Champion: New York Liberty
Outcomes
14
winner-take-all
Runner-up
18¢
2026 Champion: Indiana Fever
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Oct 31, 2026
175 days
Venue
Polymarket
14 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
WNBA: 2026 Champion
WNBA: 2026 Champion: Atlanta Dream
0x4c9590…2edb
WNBA: 2026 Champion: Phoenix Mercury
0x6c0513…3108
WNBA: 2026 Champion: Los Angeles Sparks
0x88283e…185c
WNBA: 2026 Champion: Golden State Valkyries
0xa0c78a…bbf5
WNBA: 2026 Champion: Dallas Wings
0x31c599…23e4
WNBA: 2026 Champion: Chicago Sky
0x3f448a…df52
WNBA: 2026 Champion: Washington Mystics
0x902b30…91f7
WNBA: 2026 Champion: Seattle Storm
0x202ecd…9e97
WNBA: 2026 Champion: Minnesota Lynx
0xcb3a9d…0838
WNBA: 2026 Champion: Las Vegas Aces
0xb07519…0138
WNBA: 2026 Champion: Toronto Tempo
0x033dd3…d004
WNBA: 2026 Champion: New York Liberty
0xe11b15…7ba0
WNBA: 2026 Champion: Indiana Fever
0xd87169…f813
WNBA: 2026 Champion: Connecticut Sun
0xa39798…133a
Analysis
The 27% probability indicates that the contract leader is assessed as having roughly a one-in-four chance of winning the 2026 WNBA championship. This price reflects current betting market expectations based on roster strength, injury status, and perceived championship contention likelihood. The market is driven by seasonal performance data, trade activity during the offseason, and team composition relative to competitors. The biggest driver of movement will be the regular season itself: as teams begin play and their actual 2026 performance becomes observable, probabilities will recalibrate based on wins-losses, injury developments, and playoff positioning. The resolution date is the 2026 WNBA Finals conclusion. Uncertainty around roster stability, key player fitness heading into the season, and how new lineups perform together will cause ongoing price adjustments through the offseason and into summer competition.
- ›Current roster composition and announced trades or free-agent signings for the 2026 season
- ›Injury status of core players entering the season, particularly those returning from 2025 injuries
- ›Regular season performance metrics (win-loss record, playoff seeding trajectory) once games begin
- ›Historical playoff success rate and clutch performance of the team's roster in previous postseasons
- ›Movement of competing teams' probabilities and relative market consensus about championship contenders
What moved the line
- May 32026 Champion: Golden State Valkyries↓14pp18→4¢ · Polymarket
- May 32026 Champion: Los Angeles Sparks↓14pp18→4¢ · Polymarket
- May 22026 Champion: New York Liberty↓11pp41→30¢ · Polymarket
- May 62026 Champion: Washington Mystics↓11pp16→5¢ · Polymarket
- May 22026 Champion: Seattle Storm↓9pp13→4¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.