Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC

30-day trend

Analysis

Wuhan San Zhen FC is currently priced with a 47% probability of winning against Qingdao Hainiu FC, making them slight favorites in this matchup. The probability reflects market expectations based on recent form, head-to-head records, squad composition, and home-field advantage considerations. The price could shift materially based on team news—such as injuries to key players, lineup changes announced before kickoff, or recent performance trends—which typically emerge in the days immediately before competition. The most significant driver of repricing will be the match result itself, which resolves the question definitively. Secondary factors include betting volume concentration, which currently appears modest across the three linked contracts ($90-$339 in 24-hour volume), suggesting limited liquidity may create wider spreads between buy and sell prices. Market participants are pricing in meaningful uncertainty: the 47% for Wuhan San Zhen implies roughly even odds when accounting for the third outcome (Qingdao Hainiu at 27%, implying a draw or other outcome at 26%), indicating neither team is heavily favored.

• ›Wuhan San Zhen holds 47% probability compared to runner-up Qingdao Hainiu at 27%, with remaining probability split among other outcomes
• ›Three separate Polymarket contracts averaging 34% shows significant dispersion, suggesting contract specification differences or low market consensus
• ›24-hour trading volume across linked contracts ranges from $33 to $339, indicating relatively thin liquidity that may allow single large trades to move prices materially
• ›The probability reflects pre-match conditions; major repricing typically follows confirmed team sheets, injury announcements, or weather/venue updates within 24-48 hours of kickoff
• ›Historical head-to-head record, current league standings, and recent form data would be needed to assess whether 47% is high or low relative to fundamental expectations

What moved the line

• May 2Qingdao Hainiu FC↓6pp39→33¢ · Polymarket
• May 3Qingdao Hainiu FC↓6pp33→27¢ · Polymarket
• May 3Draw (Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC)↓5pp31→26¢ · Polymarket
• May 2Draw (Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC)↓4pp35→31¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

• Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds