SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 23 min agoCloses May 6, 2026 · 3d22pp · 7h

Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets

Leader sits at 83% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 62%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

83%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 62¢leader 83¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

62¢

O/U 2.5

Spread

21pp

contested

24h volume

$8

thin orderbook

Closes

May 6, 2026

3 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 82% on 2026-05-03O/U 2.5: 62% on 2026-05-02Both Teams to Score: 51% on 2026-05-03
O/U 1.582¢O/U 2.562¢Both Teams to Score51¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

The 61% probability reflects market expectations that Yunnan Yukun FC will either win or achieve a specific outcome against Zhejiang Zhiye FC in an upcoming match. This level suggests moderate confidence rather than a dominant favorite status. The probability is driven by recent team form, head-to-head history, and current league standings, with factors like injury status or weather conditions capable of shifting sentiment meaningfully. The resolution will occur on the match date when the final result is recorded, eliminating all uncertainty. Until then, market participants are weighing available information about squad strength, tactical matchups, and home-field advantage to price the outcome.

  • Current league position and recent win-loss records of both teams indicate relative competitive strength
  • Historical head-to-head results between Yunnan Yukun FC and Zhejiang Zhiye FC establish baseline performance patterns
  • Reported player injuries, suspensions, or personnel changes that affect available squad depth
  • Home/away venue and any documented performance differential at each location
  • Proximity to the match date and timing of any lineup announcements that resolve information asymmetry

What moved the line

  • May 3Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-1.5)16pp1733¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-2.5)15pp1126¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Yunnan Yukun FC (-2.5)10pp1424¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Yunnan Yukun FC (-1.5)3pp2528¢ · Polymarket

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 23 min ago.