ZED FC vs. El Gouna SC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 15 contracts. Kalshi at 33%, Polymarket at 31%.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
3 contracts
Polymarket
31%
12 contracts
Cross-venue gap
2pp
tight
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$73K
15 contracts
Closes
May 3, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 33¢ · Polymarket 31¢ · 2pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (31¢, 12 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (33¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
2 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC” vs “Zed vs El Gouna Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC
Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC - More Markets: ZED FC (-1.5)
0x8b80ae…e3a6
Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC: Haras El Hodood SC
0x521a87…6c62
Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC: ZED FC
0xfc883f…e204
Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC: Draw (Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC)
0xdb2cae…15eb
Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC - More Markets: Haras El Hodood SC (-1.5)
0xb14e19…075f
Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x446a8c…ec1f
Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC - More Markets: ZED FC (-2.5)
0xc2e12e…531a
Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xc3a5b7…20a0
Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xc61fee…dbe0
Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC - More Markets: Haras El Hodood SC (-2.5)
0x4ba70b…576a
Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x0691be…0c44
Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x4cfcee…151a
Cluster 2
Zed vs El Gouna Winner
What moved the line
- May 3El Gouna↑3pp19→22¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Tie↑3pp30→33¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Tie↑3pp33→36¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.