Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 36% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
36%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$371
20 contracts
Top contract
5¢
$306 · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC” vs “Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-2.5)
0x96f320…71c5
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC
0xc09bd5…6667
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x64562d…92f6
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: Shanghai Haigang FC
0xa0abb9…77bd
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x17c39c…a344
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: Shanghai Haigang FC (-1.5)
0xaa75cd…8883
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-1.5)
0x29a5a0…d6f3
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x9ba015…d92d
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x06629a…cd4f
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: Draw (Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC)
0x774484…9dc5
Cluster 2
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: Yunnan Yukun FC
0xf9ca09…9d93
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xc6f8d0…d7bf
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xf96b06…6e4f
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: Zhejiang Zhiye FC
0xd6f0e5…56f3
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: Yunnan Yukun FC (-2.5)
0x869a6a…4522
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x0d664c…58cb
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xc0a65a…2079
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-2.5)
0x5232d6…7de7
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: Yunnan Yukun FC (-1.5)
0x84d2f4…7aaf
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: Draw (Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC)
0xe3c328…a6ac
Analysis
This probability represents the aggregated market estimate that Zhejiang Zhiye FC will draw with Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC in an upcoming match. The 34% baseline sits between Kalshi's 29% and Polymarket's 35%, suggesting modest disagreement across venues about draw likelihood. Draw probabilities in football markets are typically driven by team form, tactical alignment, head-to-head history, and recent goal-scoring patterns. The match itself will resolve this uncertainty—once played, the outcome either occurs or it doesn't. Liquidity concentration on the draw contract ($171 in 24h volume) relative to outright win contracts suggests traders view a stalemate as a meaningful possibility, though Zhejiang's win contract (55¢) prices them as slight favorites overall. The 6-percentage-point spread between venues may reflect different trader bases or contract-specific liquidity effects rather than fundamental disagreement.
- ›Draw contract at 23¢ on Polymarket represents the isolated market price; if this reflects true probability, the aggregated 34% suggests other outcome combinations are being weighted differently across venues
- ›Zhejiang Zhiye FC win contract at 55¢ implies ~55% win probability for the home/favored side, leaving ~22% for Shenzhen and ~23% for draw—consistent with the draw probability range being estimated
- ›24-hour volume concentration on the draw contract ($171) versus Shenzhen win contract ($58) indicates relative liquidity imbalance, which can distort pricing if one side has fewer traders
- ›The Polymarket-Kalshi gap of 6 percentage points is material for a 34% target; this suggests either different information access, trader composition, or contract design affecting how probabilities are distributed across outcomes
- ›Over/Under 2.5 goals at 60¢ suggests markets expect moderate scoring, relevant because low-scoring matches (0-0, 1-1) mechanically increase draw probability
What moved the line
- May 3Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-2.5)↑15pp11→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Yunnan Yukun FC (-2.5)↑10pp14→24¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC↓8pp30→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Draw (Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC)↓8pp29→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-1.5)↑6pp17→23¢ · Polymarket
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 22 min ago.