Will US Ground Invasion of Iran Follow Failed Air Campaign?

The United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. After 5 weeks of airstrikes, the US faces three compounding pressures: (1) Air power alone cannot destroy Iran's deeply buried nuclear facilities at Fordow and elsewhere — GBU-57 bunker busters have proven insufficient; (2) The Hormuz strait blockade cannot be reliably reopened without ground control of Iran's coastal anti-ship missile and mine infrastructure; (3) Trump's political operating system requires a decisive, visual "mission accomplished" moment to declare victory and exit the war. The market at 53% on Polymarket underprices this scenario. A limited ground operation targeting the coastal strip and key nuclear sites — not full occupation — is the most likely path. The US military has 5 weeks of pre-positioning time and coalition support from Israel and Gulf states.