When will SpaceX IPO
event base · KXIPOSPACEX
Term structure
YES probability across 13 tenors
Analysis
The When will SpaceX IPO family contains 13 contracts spread across 13 tenors (3d – 12mo). The average implied YES probability is 90.6%.
A bespoke narrative analysis is generated by an LLM on a 24h cron when the constituent set changes. If this paragraph is showing instead, the curve has either just appeared in the index or has not yet been queued.
Constituent markets
13 kalshi contracts
| Market | Tenor | P(YES) | Vol 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| When will SpaceX IPO?: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 7mo | 99.0% | $1.1K |
| When will SpaceX IPO?: Before Feb 1, 2027 | 8mo | 99.0% | $0 |
| When will SpaceX IPO?: Before Mar 1, 2027 | 9mo | 99.0% | $0 |
| When will SpaceX IPO?: Before Apr 1, 2027 | 10mo | 99.0% | $133 |
| When will SpaceX IPO?: Before May 1, 2027 | 11mo | 99.0% | $0 |
| When will SpaceX IPO?: Before Jun 1, 2027 | 12mo | 99.0% | $25 |
| When will SpaceX IPO?: Before Nov 1, 2026 | 5mo | 98.0% | $0 |
| When will SpaceX IPO?: Before Dec 1, 2026 | 6mo | 98.0% | $0 |
| When will SpaceX IPO?: Before Aug 1, 2026 | 9w | 97.0% | $170 |
| When will SpaceX IPO?: Before Sep 1, 2026 | 3mo | 97.0% | $90 |
| When will SpaceX IPO?: Before Oct 1, 2026 | 4mo | 97.0% | $2 |
| When will SpaceX IPO?: Before Jul 1, 2026 | 5w | 95.0% | $4.9K |
| When will SpaceX IPO?: Before Jun 1, 2026 | 3d | 2.0% | $116.6K |
How to read this page
A term structure plots the implied YES probability of each constituent market against its days-to-resolution. Steepening upward = the market prices the event as becoming more likely with time. Flat = stable expectations. Inverted = a near-term catalyst raises odds early then they fade.
Curve construction: each constituent contract is identified by its venue event_id (KXIPOSPACEX on kalshi). Tenor is computed from the contract’s close_time minus snapshot time, rounded to days. We do not interpolate between tenors — every plotted point is a real, traded contract. Outcome-slate pages show price-as-probability for mutually-exclusive contracts; term-structure pages show price-as-probability vs days-to-resolution for the same underlying event.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.