Bitcoin Breaks $80k First — Momentum + ETF Flows Confirm Thesis

IBIT surged 4.29% today, the largest ETF move tracked, and the Polymarket '$80k or $60k first' contract already sits at 65¢ favoring $80k. ETH ETFs rose 3.93% in sympathy, confirming broad crypto risk-on. Kalshi daily settlement markets price BTC above $68k as near-certain today. The combination of ETF inflows, risk-on rotation from a hawkish Fed pause, and geopolitical safe-haven demand makes $80k the cleaner path.