WTI $115 by June Is a Near-Certainty — Oil Shock Thesis Is Dominant

With Kharg Island strike odds at 46¢, Hormuz traffic disruption priced in, and USO already up +0.87% today, the oil supply shock narrative is the market's dominant macro trade. WTI $115 by June is at 92¢ and $120 at 85¢ — both still offer long exposure to a high-conviction thesis with oil currently at ~$106. Kalshi's Apr 7 settlement at 92¢ for >$105 confirms the near-term floor. Buy yes on $120 target.