HIGH·BUY NO·geopoliticsApr 8, 2026
Iran Ceasefire Before Oil $120 Is Priced as Certain — It's Not
The 'US x Iran ceasefire before oil hits $120' contract is trading at 100¢, implying near-certainty of a ceasefire happening before oil reaches $120. But Kharg Island strike probability is 46¢, Iran leadership change is 40¢ by June, and US military operations are confirmed. The path to $120 oil without a ceasefire is very real — this market is mispriced by ~85¢. Sell yes / buy no aggressively.
edge85¢
horizon2w
directionBUY NO
markets1
Catalyst
Kharg Island terminal strike or Hormuz traffic disruption announcement — any of which would push oil toward $120 before ceasefire is reached
Risk
A sudden diplomatic breakthrough or Trump-brokered ceasefire deal resolves the market YES before oil reaches $120
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