HIGH·BUY NO·geopoliticsApr 8, 2026
No Iran Ceasefire Before Trump China Visit — Free Money
The 'US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China' contract trades at 100¢ YES on Polymarket with only 8-15¢ thesis-implied value — an 85-92¢ edge on NO. US forces are already confirmed operating against Iran, leadership change odds hit 40% by June, and diplomatic channels are frozen. A ceasefire before a China summit is nearly impossible given the current escalation trajectory. This is a near-arbitrage.
edge90¢
horizon2w
directionBUY NO
markets1
Catalyst
Continued US military operations against Iran with no diplomatic off-ramp visible
Risk
Surprise Xi-Trump back-channel produces unexpected diplomatic framework
Referenced Markets
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