No Iran Ceasefire Before Oil Hits $120 — Near-Certain Edge

Multiple edge signals converge on the same trade: 'US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120' is priced at 100¢ (YES) on Polymarket, but thesis-implied value is just 15¢, creating a massive ~85¢ executable edge on the NO side. With Kharg Island strike probability at 46¢, Hormuz disruption risk elevated, and WTI $115 markets pricing 92¢ odds, oil will almost certainly breach $120 before any diplomatic resolution materializes. Sell YES / buy NO immediately.