Fields Medal cross-venue arb: buy Kalshi, sell Polymarket at 19¢ gap
X1/X2 shows Alexander Efimov at 6¢ on Kalshi vs 25¢ on Polymarket — a 19¢ cross-venue gap at 94% confidence. X5/X6 adds Logunov at 17¢ vs 31¢ (14¢ gap) and X9/X10 adds Pardon at 59¢ vs 69¢ (10¢ gap). The combined Fields Medal cluster offers three simultaneous arb legs on the same award, same outcome, different venues. Buy all three on Kalshi, sell/fade on Polymarket for a delta-neutral book; the 19¢ top gap is the lead leg. Total expected value across the cluster is the gap minus execution costs.
Multiple identical-outcome markets show Kalshi pricing 10-19¢ below Polymarket on the same contracts, with 94-95% confidence of market equivalence. The Fields Medal cluster is the most actionable: three separate candidates show 9-19¢ gaps with high confidence, suggesting a structural liquidity discount on Kalshi rather than any information difference. The Wisconsin governor primary also shows an 11¢ gap with 95% confidence, the tightest arb cluster.
CatalystFields Medal announcement (typically July/August ICM Congress 2026)
RiskVenue-specific resolution rules differ; Kalshi may use different eligibility criteria than Polymarket; liquidity on Kalshi legs is thin
WatchPrices converge to within 2¢ at announcement or Kalshi reprices toward Polymarket · by 2026-08-01
Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?: Alexander Efimov
loading…Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?: Aleksandr Logunov
loading…Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?: John Pardon
loading…sf ideas && sf book KXFIELDS-26-AEFI