Wisconsin Governor Dem Primary: tightest arb at 95% confidence
X7/X8 shows Francesca Hong at 40¢ on Kalshi vs 51¢ on Polymarket — an 11¢ gap at 95% confidence, the highest confidence score in the cross-venue dataset. This is a cleaner arb than the Fields Medal cluster because the primary election is a binary, well-defined outcome with a fixed resolution date. At 40¢, Kalshi is pricing 11 points of free edge vs Polymarket. Buy X7 on Kalshi; hedge with a short on X8. The 95% confidence of market equivalence means execution risk, not thesis risk, is the dominant variable.
Multiple identical-outcome markets show Kalshi pricing 10-19¢ below Polymarket on the same contracts, with 94-95% confidence of market equivalence. The Fields Medal cluster is the most actionable: three separate candidates show 9-19¢ gaps with high confidence, suggesting a structural liquidity discount on Kalshi rather than any information difference. The Wisconsin governor primary also shows an 11¢ gap with 95% confidence, the tightest arb cluster.
CatalystWisconsin Democratic Governor primary election result
RiskMarkets resolve differently due to write-in or third-candidate scenarios; Kalshi liquidity may not fill at 40¢
WatchX7 and X8 converge; buy X7 at 40¢ targets 51¢+ resolution · by 2026-08-11
Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Francesca Hong
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