This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
J.D. Vance | 16.0% |
Pete Buttigieg | 11.5% |
Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 11.5% |
Elise Stefanik | 11.0% |
Wes Moore | 10.5% |
CurrentRaphael Warnock | 10.5% |
Rand Paul | 10.5% |
Josh Shapiro | 10.0% |
Greg Abbott | 9.5% |
Matt Gaetz | 8.0% |
John Thune | 8.0% |
Josh Hawley | 8.0% |
John Fetterman | 7.5% |
Vivek Ramaswamy | 7.5% |
George Clooney | 7.0% |
Kristi Noem | 4.5% |
Barack Obama | 4.5% |
Beto O’Rourke | 4.5% |
Erika Kirk | 4.3% |
Cory Booker | 3.9% |
LeBron James | 3.5% |