This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual announces that they are running for President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Gavin Newsom | 26.5% |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 16.5% |
Pete Buttigieg | 16.0% |
Candace Owens | 16.0% |
John Fetterman | 16.0% |
Kamala Harris | 15.5% |
Mark Kelly | 15.5% |
Andy Beshear | 14.5% |
Andrew Yang | 14.1% |
Kristi Noem | 14.0% |
Katie Britt | 13.8% |
Steve Bannon | 13.5% |
Nikki Haley | 13.5% |
Ron DeSantis | 13.5% |
Ted Cruz | 13.0% |
Jared Polis | 13.0% |
J.D. Vance | 13.0% |
John Thune | 12.0% |
Mark Cuban | 12.0% |
Wes Moore | 11.5% |
Elise Stefanik | 11.5% |
Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 11.5% |
Gretchen Whitmer | 11.5% |
Mike Pence | 11.3% |
Vivek Ramaswamy | 11.0% |
Tulsi Gabbard | 11.0% |
Gina Raimondo | 10.8% |
Raphael Warnock | 10.5% |
Jon Ossoff | 10.5% |
Kim Kardashian | 10.5% |
Rahm Emanuel | 10.5% |
Stephen A. Smith | 10.0% |
Cory Booker | 9.8% |
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 9.5% |
Brian Kemp | 9.0% |
Tucker Carlson | 8.5% |
J.B. Pritzker | 8.5% |
Greg Abbott | 8.5% |
Ivanka Trump | 8.5% |
Marjorie Taylor Greene | 8.5% |
Beto O’Rourke | 8.1% |
Tom Brady | 8.0% |
Elon Musk | 8.0% |
Donald Trump Jr. | 8.0% |
Rand Paul | 8.0% |
George Clooney | 8.0% |
Bernie Sanders | 7.5% |
Liz Cheney | 7.5% |
Jon Stewart | 7.5% |
Byron Donalds | 7.0% |
Oprah Winfrey | 7.0% |
Marco Rubio | 7.0% |
Hillary Clinton | 7.0% |
Roy Cooper | 7.0% |
Chelsea Clinton | 7.0% |
Glenn Youngkin | 6.7% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 6.5% |
Josh Shapiro | 6.0% |
Phil Murphy | 5.7% |
Matt Gaetz | 5.5% |
Barack Obama | 5.3% |
Erika Kirk | 5.2% |
Michelle Obama | 5.1% |
Josh Hawley | 5.1% |
Tim Walz | 5.0% |
CurrentDonald Trump | 4.7% |
Hunter Biden | 4.5% |
Zohran Mamdani | 3.9% |
MrBeast | 2.1% |
LeBron James | 1.9% |
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