This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Gavin Newsom | 26.5% |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 16.5% |
John Fetterman | 16.5% |
Candace Owens | 16.1% |
Pete Buttigieg | 16.0% |
Kamala Harris | 15.5% |
Mark Kelly | 15.5% |
Andy Beshear | 14.5% |
Andrew Yang | 14.1% |
Kristi Noem | 14.0% |
Katie Britt | 13.8% |
Steve Bannon | 13.5% |
Nikki Haley | 13.5% |
Ron DeSantis | 13.5% |
Ted Cruz | 13.0% |
Jared Polis | 13.0% |
J.D. Vance | 13.0% |
John Thune | 12.0% |
Mark Cuban | 12.0% |
Elise Stefanik | 11.5% |
Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 11.5% |
Gretchen Whitmer | 11.5% |
Mike Pence | 11.3% |
Vivek Ramaswamy | 11.0% |
Wes Moore | 11.0% |
Tulsi Gabbard | 11.0% |
Gina Raimondo | 10.8% |
Raphael Warnock | 10.5% |
Jon Ossoff | 10.5% |
Stephen A. Smith | 10.5% |
Rahm Emanuel | 10.5% |
Kim Kardashian | 10.5% |
Cory Booker | 9.8% |
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 9.5% |
Brian Kemp | 9.0% |
Tucker Carlson | 8.5% |
J.B. Pritzker | 8.5% |
Greg Abbott | 8.5% |
Ivanka Trump | 8.5% |
Marjorie Taylor Greene | 8.5% |
Beto O’Rourke | 8.1% |
Tom Brady | 8.0% |
Elon Musk | 8.0% |
Donald Trump Jr. | 8.0% |
Rand Paul | 8.0% |
George Clooney | 8.0% |
Bernie Sanders | 7.5% |
Liz Cheney | 7.5% |
Jon Stewart | 7.5% |
Byron Donalds | 7.0% |
Oprah Winfrey | 7.0% |
Marco Rubio | 7.0% |
Hillary Clinton | 7.0% |
Roy Cooper | 7.0% |
Chelsea Clinton | 7.0% |
Glenn Youngkin | 6.7% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 6.5% |
Josh Shapiro | 6.0% |
Phil Murphy | 5.7% |
Matt Gaetz | 5.5% |
Barack Obama | 5.3% |
Erika Kirk | 5.2% |
Josh Hawley | 5.1% |
Tim Walz | 5.0% |
Michelle Obama | 5.0% |
Donald Trump | 4.8% |
Hunter Biden | 4.5% |
CurrentZohran Mamdani | 3.9% |
MrBeast | 2.1% |
LeBron James | 1.9% |
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