This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual announces that they are running for President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
J.D. Vance | 16.0% |
Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 11.5% |
Pete Buttigieg | 11.5% |
Elise Stefanik | 11.0% |
Wes Moore | 10.5% |
Rand Paul | 10.5% |
Raphael Warnock | 10.5% |
Josh Shapiro | 10.0% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 9.5% |
Greg Abbott | 9.5% |
Josh Hawley | 8.0% |
John Thune | 8.0% |
Matt Gaetz | 8.0% |
Vivek Ramaswamy | 7.5% |
John Fetterman | 7.5% |
George Clooney | 7.0% |
Beto O’Rourke | 4.5% |
CurrentKristi Noem | 4.5% |
Barack Obama | 4.5% |
Erika Kirk | 4.3% |
Cory Booker | 3.9% |
LeBron James | 3.5% |