Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5

The market is pricing an 86% probability of over 1.5 goals in this DFB-Pokal matchup, but the extreme yield asymmetry (1029% for Yes vs. 38,818% for No) and zero 24-hour volume suggest thin liquidity despite $87k open interest. The price has surged 55 cents in seven days with realized volatility at 1194%, indicating either late model recalibration or potential mispricing as the April 22 event approaches in just 6 days. The 8-cent spread and high cliff risk index (6) warrant caution—this appears to be a low-conviction market where the extreme No yield may reflect illiquidity rather than genuine probability.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming DFB-Pokal game between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and FC Bayern München, scheduled for April 22 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Bayer 04 Leverkusen and FC Bayern München combine to score 2 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 2, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on dfb.de. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Regime

Trade