Will Drake Maye lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?

Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Will Drake Maye lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing February 8, 2027. This market prices Drake Maye at just 20% to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns during the 2026-2027 season, reflecting significant skepticism about a second-year quarterback competing against established elite passers.

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20¢
Bid/Ask 0/20¢·Spread 20¢·Vol $0·OI $9.04·Closes Feb 8, 2027·293d remaining
KXLEADERNFLPTDS-27-DMAYE10

Analysis

35h ago

This market prices Drake Maye at just 20% to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns during the 2026-2027 season, reflecting significant skepticism about a second-year quarterback competing against established elite passers. The 495% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high, but the minimal $9.04 in both volume and open interest signals dangerously low liquidity—the wide 19¢ spread and elevated cliff risk (4/10) suggest this contract could be difficult to exit at fair value. With nearly 10 months until resolution, the neutral regime and modest time decay make this a speculative bet on Maye's rapid development rather than a near-term catalyst play.

Resolution rules

If Drake Maye leads Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 497.8%
IY (No) 31.1%
Adj IY 0%
CRI 4
Overround 0.7%
LAS 1.00
▶ Full indicator table (6)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)497.8%
IY (No)31.1%
Adj IY0%
CRI4
Overround0.7%
LAS1.00

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:35:35 AM
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:38:26 AM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXLEADERNFLPTDS-27-DMAYE10 yes 100

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