Will Dak Prescott lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?
Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Will Dak Prescott lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing February 8, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $13 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 20¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $13 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 20¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. The asymmetric implied yields—494% on Yes versus 31% on No—suggest the market is severely underpricing Prescott's chances relative to the risk-reward structure, though this could reflect genuine skepticism about a Cowboys QB leading the league in TDs. With 296 days until expiry and a cliff risk index of 4, there's meaningful time for the market to develop liquidity and price discovery, but current conditions warrant caution for any position given the minimal trading activity.
Resolution rules
If Dak Prescott leads Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLEADERNFLPTDS-27-DPRESCOTT4 yes 100