Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing May 31, 2026.

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3¢
Bid/Ask 3/3¢·Spread 0¢·Vol $9,037.379·OI $30,984.5·Closes May 31, 2026·39d remaining
0x04e73caf81ef64ce0c612699049d295e18dfe9bdd60d898fd3d8a64cac723661
7-day price83 snapshots · 116 regime
6¢3¢ current
Apr 81¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Indicators

IY (Yes) 30184.8%
IY (No) 28.9%
Adj IY 15092%
CRI 32
Overround -0.0%
LAS 0.00
▶ Full indicator table (6)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)30184.8%
IY (No)28.9%
Adj IY15092%
CRI32
Overround-0.0%
LAS0.00

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.409
Spread
0¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 9:51:09 PM
Observability mediumEvent type political
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:38:17 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x04e73caf81ef64ce0c612699049d295e18dfe9bdd60d898fd3d8a64cac723661 yes 100

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