Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in April 2026?

This market shows a sharp 10-cent rally over seven days to 80¢, pricing in an 80% probability that core CPI will exceed 2.5% through April 2026, yet liquidity is extremely thin with only $38 in 24-hour volume and a wide 8-cent spread that limits reliable execution. The extraordinarily high implied yield for "No" positions (4060%) signals severe mispricing or illiquidity rather than genuine market conviction, and with just 23 days to expiration, the market is highly sensitive to the next CPI print. The recent price movement combined with low open interest of $3,368 suggests this contract may be driven by speculative positioning rather than fundamental reassessment of inflation expectations.

Resolution rules

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.5% in the twelve months ending April 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.

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