Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

The Yes position shows an extreme 9,408% implied yield despite only 22¢ pricing, suggesting severe mispricing or that traders heavily doubt the 10-20 transit range will occur on that specific date. With just $9.07 in 24-hour volume against $10.1M open interest, liquidity is critically thin, making the yield calculation potentially unreliable and vulnerable to manipulation. The price has surged 69% over seven days (13¢ to 22¢) with realized volatility at 1,852%, indicating either new information about Hormuz transit patterns or speculative positioning ahead of the 14-day expiration.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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