Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?
Leader sits at 86% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 84%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jul 1, 2027
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
84¢
Before Apr 1, 2027
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$417K
liquid
Closes
Jul 1, 2027
382 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260701
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before September 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260901
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027?: Before Jul 1, 2027
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270701
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B261001
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2027?: Before Apr 1, 2027
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270401
Analysis
This contract estimates a 25% probability that the average number of daily ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz will fall between 0-10 by the end of April 2026. The Strait is one of the world's most critical chokepoints for oil and liquefied natural gas, typically seeing 60+ transits daily under normal conditions. The current low probability reflects expectations that traffic will remain near historical norms rather than collapse to single or low double-digits. A sharp reduction would require a major disruption—such as military conflict, sanctions escalation, regional instability, or a coordinated shipping diversion. The IMF PortWatch data will definitively resolve this contract on May 1, when April's final figures are released. Related contracts show market participants assign extremely low odds to even 40+ daily transits, suggesting confidence in continued high-volume traffic through the waterway.
- ›IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average baseline: typical rates exceed 60 transits daily, making a collapse to 0-10 a tail-risk scenario
- ›Geopolitical stability in the Persian Gulf region as of late April 2026—any military escalation or sanctions regime change would be the primary catalyst for reduced traffic
- ›Historical traffic data through April 2025 and early 2026 to establish whether recent trends support or contradict low-traffic expectations
- ›Correlation with crude oil prices and global LNG demand, since shipping disruptions typically accompany broader energy market shocks
- ›Calendar date of April 30, 2026: final observed transit counts will be locked in within 48 hours, with IMF release typically occurring May 1
What moved the line
- Jun 12Before Aug 1, 2026↑13pp27→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 12Before Sep 1, 2026↑13pp35→48¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 12Before Oct 1, 2026↑10pp44→54¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 13Before Sep 1, 2026↑9pp48→57¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 13Before Oct 1, 2026↑9pp54→63¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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