Will the Democratic Party win the IL-02 House seat?
Prediction markets currently give a 93% probability that Will the Democratic Party win the IL-02 House seat?. This contract trades at 93¢ on Polymarket, closing November 3, 2026. This market reflects an extremely lopsided Democratic lean in Illinois's 2nd congressional district, with a 93¢ price implying near-certainty of Democratic retention, yet the No side offers a staggering 2425% implied yield compared to just 13.7% for Yes—a massive asymmetry suggesting minimal liquidity and potentially unrealistic pricing on the Republican outcome.
Analysis
This market reflects an extremely lopsided Democratic lean in Illinois's 2nd congressional district, with a 93¢ price implying near-certainty of Democratic retention, yet the No side offers a staggering 2425% implied yield compared to just 13.7% for Yes—a massive asymmetry suggesting minimal liquidity and potentially unrealistic pricing on the Republican outcome. The $0 24-hour volume combined with only $19,515 in open interest indicates this is an illiquid market where the extreme No yield may not reflect genuine probability but rather the mathematical artifact of tiny position sizes, making the 1¢ spread somewhat misleading as a liquidity indicator. With 200 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the market appears fairly settled on Democratic dominance, though traders should be cautious about the cliff risk index of 13 and the possibility that late-campaign developments could shift the narrative in this historically Democratic district.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x0a9995dd3ac5124bf50a73fd50c6c149253fadfb41d05a6c792611552a7ce01d yes 100