Will the Democratic Party win the TN-08 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2091.8% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 15.8% on the No side, reflecting the 8¢ price that prices in only an 8% Democratic win probability in this heavily Republican district. The $32.6M open interest combined with zero 24-hour volume suggests this is a stale, illiquid position where the price may not reflect current market sentiment, and the 1¢ spread indicates thin liquidity for execution. With 201 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 12, this market carries meaningful event risk, though the neutral regime score suggests no immediate catalysts are driving repricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade