Will CA Lanús vs. CA Central Córdoba end in a draw?

Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Will CA Lanús vs. CA Central Córdoba end in a draw?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Polymarket, closing April 24, 2026. This draw market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $208k open interest and a massive 46¢ spread, suggesting the 32¢ price may not reflect true consensus.

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25¢
Bid/Ask 24/25¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $73,185.195·Closes Apr 24, 2026·2d remaining
0x0d2a585e311ed0e629a044c3e973b3f735a7a3963a1f58074466850efc9cc8eb
7-day price118 snapshots · 3 regime
35¢25¢ current
Apr 1821¢Apr 21

Analysis

2d ago

This draw market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $208k open interest and a massive 46¢ spread, suggesting the 32¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The astronomical implied yield of 17,794% on the Yes side indicates severe mispricing or trapped liquidity, likely from positions entered at vastly different price levels. With only 4 days to expiry and a 897% realized volatility, this market is highly unstable and should be approached with caution given the disconnect between the quoted price and actual tradeable depth.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 24, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 68054.7%
IY (No) 7561.6%
Adj IY 34027%
CRI 3
Overround 0.0%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)68054.7%
IY (No)7561.6%
Adj IY34027%
CRI3
Overround0.0%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 9:24:46 AM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 9:23:24 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x0d2a585e311ed0e629a044c3e973b3f735a7a3963a1f58074466850efc9cc8eb yes 100

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