GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Prediction markets currently give a 78% probability that GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?. This contract trades at 78¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2028. The 66¢ price reflects a moderately bullish view on GRVT reaching a $100M FDV within one day of launch, but the asymmetric implied yields (95.3% on "No" vs.
Analysis
The 66¢ price reflects a moderately bullish view on GRVT reaching a $100M FDV within one day of launch, but the asymmetric implied yields (95.3% on "No" vs. 35.8% on "Yes") suggest the market is pricing in substantial execution risk despite the 66% probability. With 625 days to resolution, the extreme realized volatility of 286% and vol ratio of 4.66 indicate this is a highly speculative contract experiencing significant price swings—the recent 7-day decline from 72¢ to 64¢ underscores uncertainty, and the modest $158.8k daily volume relative to $11.9M open interest suggests potential liquidity constraints if positions need to unwind quickly.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of GRVT's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If GRVT (https://x.com/grvt_io) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x0e52820084d4e4eee6da2117e14bd3c9ed59df48b7562c5d0419b35f7778fcf4 yes 100