Cambria FDV above $200M one day after launch?

This market is pricing an extremely low probability (4%) for Cambria's FDV to exceed $200M within a day of launch, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 1,402% implied yield, suggesting significant mispricing or extreme risk aversion among traders. With zero 24-hour volume and only $12,883 in open interest despite 625 days to expiry, liquidity is critically thin, making the 3¢ spread potentially misleading and the price discovery unreliable. The cliff risk index of 24 indicates substantial binary event risk, and the massive yield asymmetry combined with dormant trading activity suggests this market may be undervalued if Cambria generates meaningful hype at launch.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Cambria's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

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