Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?

This market is pricing in only a 10% chance that any AI model reaches a 1700 Chatbot Arena score by end of 2026, despite the current top models (GPT-4o at ~1300, Claude 3.5 Sonnet at ~1280) needing roughly 400-420 point improvements—a substantial but not unprecedented gap given the 2+ year timeframe. The extremely asymmetric implied yield (1273.6% for Yes vs. 15.7% for No) and zero 24-hour volume suggest this is a niche market with minimal liquidity and potentially mispriced odds, especially given the high cliff risk index of 9 indicating significant binary outcome sensitivity. The modest 7-day price movement from 9¢ to 10¢ and $7.7M open interest suggest limited recent conviction, making this potentially attractive for contrarian bettors who believe frontier AI progress will accelerate substantially.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

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