GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Prediction markets currently give a 51% probability that GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?. This contract trades at 51¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2028. The 35% probability reflects skepticism about GRVT reaching a $200M FDV within 24 hours of launch, though the 118.6% implied yield on the Yes side suggests meaningful tail-risk appetite despite extremely high realized volatility (501%).
Analysis
The 35% probability reflects skepticism about GRVT reaching a $200M FDV within 24 hours of launch, though the 118.6% implied yield on the Yes side suggests meaningful tail-risk appetite despite extremely high realized volatility (501%). With only $11.7K in 24-hour volume against $14.7M open interest and a 625-day runway, liquidity is notably thin relative to position size, creating potential slippage concerns and making the 4¢ spread somewhat deceptive given the low trading activity.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of GRVT's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If GRVT (https://x.com/grvt_io) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x0f2158e04dec35565e6b30b7c9fa0e32f80ec29d6662956c21f0b0e498af6fd7 yes 100