Will Mike Pieciak win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 28% probability that Will Mike Pieciak win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election?. This contract trades at 28¢ on Polymarket, closing August 11, 2026. Mike Pieciak's odds have surged 43% over seven days to 30¢, yet the market remains illiquid with only $26.6 in 24-hour volume against $14.9M open interest, suggesting thin order books and potential execution challenges.
Analysis
Mike Pieciak's odds have surged 43% over seven days to 30¢, yet the market remains illiquid with only $26.6 in 24-hour volume against $14.9M open interest, suggesting thin order books and potential execution challenges. The extreme 734% implied yield on the Yes side combined with 783% realized volatility and a 2.34 vol ratio indicates this is a highly speculative position where traders are pricing in substantial uncertainty about a relatively niche state primary race. With 116 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the market appears to be reacting to recent information arrivals (0.9/hour) rather than fundamental shifts, warranting caution on the reliability of this 30¢ price as a true probability estimate.
Also on kalshi at 26¢(Δ +2¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Vermont, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Vermont Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Vermont Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0x119f93111763f20417cebca08c591afa958fe343492f80f68a665eff1754c881 yes 100